Despite Hillary Clinton’s strong lead among Latino voters, it may not be enough to make a difference over Donald Trump. Fernand Amandi, Barack Obama’s Director of Hispanic Outreach in 2012, says getting Latino voters is crucial to her success.
“Clinton needs to really do overwhelmingly, over exceedingly well with Hispanic votes especially in key battleground states where we know they have made the difference,” Amandi says. “One the things (Obama’s) campaign understood early on was Hispanic voters are part of the new coalition that were going to be important to getting him across the finish line and they spent almost every day devising and communicating an outreach and a field plan that all came together for him at least on election day.”
Clinton leads Trump in four key battleground states – Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada – but her lead is not as large as the Obama held against Mitt Romney in 2012. Many expected her lead would be higher, considering multiple comments made by Trump about Hispanics in America. Amandi agrees, but also factors in third party candidates.
“I think there is a floor. I think the Republicans are going to do no worse than between 15 and 18 percent of Hispanic electorate, however, the problem for Clinton there is some options on the ballot there weren’t in 2012. Whether it is Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, right now they are accounting for between 5 or 6 and in some 7 or 8 percent of vote. I don’t think she can afford to bleed or have any of those votes eroding to third party candidates.”
Latinos will make up 11.3 percent of eligible voters this election year – a 40 percent increase from 2008 – and are concentrated in battleground states. However, with historically low voter turnout, one of Clinton’s challenges will be motivating them to get out to the polls. If she can’t, Amandi says, she may lose the election to Trump.
“In every one of these states that are going to so close, so tight every little bit counts and elections are won or lost on the margins and right now she is not at Obama’s levels and that could hurt her if she doesn’t turn it around between now and November.”
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